Air
Trans-pacific: The market has seen a slight slowdown after Lunar New Year with rates decreasing for Trans-Pac and European trade lanes. Inversely, fuel costs are on a slow and steady increase. However, it is anticipated that airlines are likely to struggle to match capacity with highly uncertain passenger demand, keeping rates elevated. We predict pricing to remain at current levels for the next nine months due to COVID-related stresses on the market. Airlines have been forced to resize their fleets based on expected passenger numbers to maintain the optimal level of load factor to make operations economically viable.
Europe: The market remains at elevated levels, as capacity out of Europe into Asia and North/South America is constrained. Airlines are reporting high capacity from all major hubs in Europe mostly due to high demand from the automotive, manufacturing, and pharma industry verticals.
Americas:
TPWB: The market continues to show strong demand into all Asia hubs with some supply chain disruptions on the WC and Midwest into Hong Kong and Japan. Current export demand has seen a large increase and our contacts predict strong strain on capacity into mid-March.
TPEB: Capacity is currently available to Continental Europe and the UK, with reported high demand and load factors.
Ocean
Transpacific Eastbound: Spot market pricing continues to be stable, as carriers extend rates through March 14. However, some carriers move to increase some of their IPI and premium services.
Carriers have yet to implement blank sailings but considering the volume limitation due to operational constrain at Prince Rupert, some carriers advise Intermodal Services into Canadian ports, Chicago ramps and some other Midwest ramps from Prince Rupert Gateway will be suspended until further notice. Additionally, some carriers are rejecting IPI freight from Shanghai into Chicago.
Many carriers are reporting capacity for India load points to be in high demand. Bookings with carriers CMA CGM, Hapag Lloyd, ONE, MSC, and EMC are closed until further notice without premium load fees. Maersk is reporting their routings are fully booked until the last week of March. Booking delays are anticipated to hold at 2 – 3 weeks, with a recommendation to book as soon cargo ready date is confirmed.
General Rate Increases (GRI): No GRI
Peak Season Surcharge (PSS): As carriers continue to control the market by removing capacity to meet supply, talk of implementing a PSS earlier than expected are widespread. Hapag-Lloyd advised it would implement a PSS between Asia and North Europe in March.
Equipment shortages remain an industry-wide challenge for all container sizes and a major limiting factor for shipments out of Asia. Repositioning and in-fleeting will remain a focus for most carriers into Q1.
Equipment Returns and Import dwell time of containers: Vessels continue to sit at anchor waiting to be unloaded in the ports of LA/LB and Oakland with current dwell times averaging 4 -5 days, as reported by HMM.
The U.S. Market
Conditions at U.S. West and East coasts remain extremely congested and without improvement over the last two weeks.
We continue to receive updates from our local stations across the U.S. regarding the current rate increases, capacity issues, equipment shortages, and many other extenuating factors.
West Coast: Currently booking 3-5 weeks in advance. Port and trucking capacity remains at critical capacity in LA/LB ports for the foreseeable future, as vessels continue to stack up in the queue. Currently, 32 vessels are anchored off the coast of LA/LB and 17 outside Oakland, as of March 1. Ocean carriers are predicting a 65% in volume growth from weeks six to seven and equipment and capacity shortages to remain.
South-West: Currently booking 1-2 weeks in advance. The port and local operations have mostly returned to normal. However, we expect ripple effects and delays from the extreme weather and shutdowns across the region.
Mid-West: Currently booking 3-4 weeks in advance. Rail ramp congestion from the recent winter storms continues to disrupt service in/out of Chicago. Railyards have closed outbound freight until the end of February, and we are seeing equipment shortages on the export side, in particular special equipment like refrigerated containers.
South-East: Currently booking 3-5 weeks in advance with last-minute bookings and appointment requests being nearly impossible to secure, especially at normal rate levels. The situation at the ports of Savannah and Charleston remains dire. Savannah is reporting 7 vessels anchored outside, with Charleston and Norfolk reporting a few vessels, respectively.
East Coast: Currently booking 2-4 weeks in advance. Weather conditions have exacerbated congestion at NY/NJ and other EC ports. Smaller ports continue to be overwhelmed with the volume and are being pulled from certain loops and sailing schedules to avoid compounding delays, with Port Conley at Boston reporting this most frequently.